Monday, August 25, 2014

Two questions

"Saudi Arabia [has become] part of a group of countries – that includes Jordan, the countries of North Africa, Nigeria, Pakistan and Yemen – nominated to fall within the scope of [IS] savagery. They have geographical depth and the kind of topography that allows the establishment of areas governed by the management of savagery. In addition to factors like a weak ruling regime, weak military presence in remote areas, a promising Jihadi Islamist presence, the nature of the people in these areas and the ubiquitous presence of weapons among people. (A. Naji, The Way of Empowerment, ibid pp.8-9).

...A lot of people close to the Saudi regime rejoiced over ISIS’ control of Mosul and its expansion into other Iraqi provinces. Some of them went as far as to describe ISIS’ fighters as “revolutionaries” and to consider what ISIS did as a “liberation movement”. Suddenly, however, the public mood changed dramatically once IS was announced and there was talk of its expansion into the south where the Arabian Peninsula.

Saudi Arabia discovered that there is an ISIS society dwelling in the midst of the Wahhabi society that it thought it managed and controlled. The House of Saud noted that a Wahhabi resurgence was launched from outside the border this time and it represents the biggest and most dangerous threat faced by the Saudi regime since its inception [in 1744, when Muhammad bin Saud, founder of the dynasty, joined forces with the religious leader Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab, founder of the Wahhabi movement, a strict puritanical form of Sunni Islam]."

1)  What are the odds that Islamic State will take Riyadh, Mecca, or Medina?



"[The arsenal formerly controlled by Gaddafi in Libya] reportedly includes 4,000 surface-to-air missiles, each capable of downing a passenger jet, and thousands of barrels of uranium yellowcake. An inventory collected by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) accounted for 6,400 yellowcake barrels.

Bharuddin Midhoun Arifi, a former human trafficker and now commander of 2,000 fighters in the city of Sabha, was one of the main inheritors of the regime’s abandoned weapon reserves.

“Sometimes I’m afraid that al-Qaeda will get me. Other times I fear that the Americans or French or British will fire missiles from the sea to destroy all I control.” Arifi told the Times. He claims that al-Qaeda had most recently offered 1 million dollars for some of the weapons, an offer which Arifi says he turned down. “I told them…this belonged to my government.”

Rows of the mortars and rockets stacked in crates, however, suggest some of the weapons have been shipped to Syria, along with hundreds of Libyan’s who have joined the rebel forces fighting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

No actions were taken to remove the uranium, which after intensive processing could become weapons grade, despite the U.N. mission in Libya suggesting its removal. Libyan Foreign Minister Mohammad Abdul Aziz echoed similar sentiments but with no avail."

2) In the wake of the Arab Spring, why did the US government fail to secure Gaddafi's arsenal?

21 comments:

Lem the artificially intelligent said...

Listening to Rush today I learned Obama almost helped out ISIS last year, when he considered bombing Azad, because Azad had crossed the red line, he, Obama, had set.

Obama had set the red line because, reportedly, Azad was gassing his own people.

Azad denied it, of course, and if we go by what we know ISIS is capable of today, odds are that it was ISIS using gas to kill people... using WMD.

Calypso Facto said...

What's worse than toppling a dictator with hopes of establishing a stable democracy and failing (like Iraq)? Toppling a dictator with absolutely no plan or concern for what comes next (Libya).

The Dude said...

Who is "Azad"? Do you mean "Izod"? Are tiny alligators involved?

Lem the artificially intelligent said...

I meant Assad.

The Dude said...

I know. I was just raggin' on you.

Aridog said...

2) In the wake of the Arab Spring, why did the US government fail to secure Gaddafi's arsenal?

Because they were very busy shipping many of them off to Syrian "rebels," that they knew squat about, through Benghazi?

Of wait, of course not....the 30+ man "Annex" was there to bake bread for the bereft Libyans. What was I thinking?

edutcher said...

1) The Saudis needed us in '91. With all that oil money, their own people weren't properly educated.

Do the math.

2) They knew the people who were in charge would do the right thing.

The Choom Gang wasn't going to be a bunch of judgmental racists or anything.

ricpic said...

You can only receive Grey Poupon in an Izod Lacoste knit shirt.

ricpic said...

Jihad is in America right now. There are Muslim Brotherhood plants in the White House, the State Department and the Department of Defense. But it's not hot jihad...yet. When jihad in America goes hot do you expect Hussein to respond? Fight back? I don't.

Michael Haz said...

What a fooking mess. You know that Iraq would love that yellow cake, as would North Korea and whatever ISIS affiliates thaw want to dirty bomb Israel and America.

The Saudis are in a tough spot, as are the United Arab Emirates. The Saudis thought they could buy long-term peace by paying the wahhabists to leave them alone to run their fiefdom and sell oil. That isn't going to work much longer, and the Saudis will be begging Obama (whose education they probably secretly funded) for military assistance.

The UAE is in a worse spot. They are the truly moderate country, where Muslim, Jew and Christina ll get along and worship in their own churches, mosques, and temples without fear of death. ISIS can't tolerate that practice.

Whatever is happening in the ME, Barry has gotten the US into the wrong side of it.

deborah said...

I assume we and the rest of the world would come to Saudi's defense, in the way of drones and bombs. I cannot see boots on the ground. It will be most interesting if they do try for Saudi.

I have the feeling the UN coalition will rain hellfire down on them one of these weeks.

As far as a dirty bomb, Philip Giraldi thinks it is scare tactics by the MSM and govt to get boots on the ground, and asks some interesting questions:

Giraldi

From my point of view, it would take more ability than the average jihadi has to acquire the yellow cake, make it into a dirty bomb, and make it to America. The ones who have the knowledge and the means know their entire enterprise would go bye-bye after the first dirty bomb explosion.

Michael Haz said...

Between threats from ISIS, Iran, and Hamas, it's possible to see a move by Saudi Arabia toward (gasp!) Israel and Egypt for the preservation of all three countries.

deborah said...

Politics, er, religion makes strange bedfellows.

Guildofcannonballs said...

What has the towns if not Islam now?

Politics.

Guildofcannonballs said...

Charles Manson nor Bernie Madoff define America, except to radical leftist Islamists.
And the idea we have so, so many riches compared to the rest of the world's cumulative history ought be something we acknowledge, understand (Mises, Hayek, Freidman, Mike Rosen of KOA 850 Denver), and encourage to the extent riches seem better than martyrdom, to even a sub-optimal mind.

Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...

Wow.

Major fuck-up on the yellowcake if so.

Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...

From my point of view, it would take more ability than the average jihadi has to acquire the yellow cake…

No. But we have Twitter now! Lol.

I think their chances of taking on the Saudis or further southeast are slim to none.

Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...

If yellow cake got out of Libya I'd love to know how. Was it shipped through Syria? (Supposedly rebels or Assad control the coast). Did it go through the Sahara and Sudan through the Red Sea? (No. They'd have to get through the Gulf). Think, people. Don't freak me out on pretense.

But still, major fuck-up if that wasn't secured. Is their provisional government really unstable enough to have lost track of it? It sounds like fear mongering.

Unknown said...

Hillary was in charge of killing kquadafi. he was a bad man, but a bad man in control of the chaos over there. Now Al Qaeda has taken over.

Unknown said...

Nuke Hollywood. While those a-holes party and hand each other golden statues, and pat each other on the back for their physical beauty and ability to cry on camera - this. THIS.
Nuke our news media, too. Put that yellowcake to use.

Unknown said...

Remember - there are NO WMD's in Iraq or the ME - NONE. Joe Biden insists.