Friday, August 2, 2013

The lesser of two evils


(Reuters) - Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said on Thursday he was confident of victory against rebels in a devastating 28-month-old civil war that has
killed more than 100,000 people and sent nearly two million fleeing abroad.
Insurgents have seized large swathes of territory, but Assad's forces have staged a counter-offensive in recent weeks, pushing them back from around the capital Damascus and retaking several towns near the border with Lebanon.
This July 23, 2010 article reports the granting of amnesty to  rebelling Syrians.
(snip) Assad has framed the revolt against four decades of his family's rule as a foreign-backed conspiracy fought by Islamist "terrorists." When pro-democracy protests started in March 2011, a military crackdown eventually led to an armed insurrection.
At the time the civil war broke out, March 2011, around 60% of the Syrian population were Sunnis Arabs living in dire poverty. (Sunni Kurds make up about 10-15% of the Sunni contingent.) I do not doubt there was foreign influence contributing to the uprising, from Westerners or Jihadis or both.
(snip) The struggle in Syria has become markedly sectarian,broadly pitting majority Sunni Muslim rebels and against Assad's minority Alawite sect, which is an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam.
The disenfranchised Sunnis were pitted against not only Assad and the Alawite sect, but also the Shi'ites,  Sunnis, Christians,  and Jews of the upper class, i.e., a cosmopolitan elite. They are located, largely on the western edge of Syria, between Damascus, to the south, and Aleppo to the north.
(snip) He has also received solid support from Shi'ite regional powerhouse Iran, Lebanon's Hezbollah movement and longtime ally Russia, while his fragmented foes have received little military aid from their Western backers wary of the growing presence of hardline Islamist rebel groups, some of them linked to al Qaeda.
 I am pro-Assad in the sense that I do not wish to see Islamists ethnically cleanse Syria of Shi'ites, Alawites, Christians and Jews, turning her into another Muslim Brotherhood controlled state. If the Syrian rebels and Assad come to the negotiating table, I assume that the poverty of the 60% Sunni Arabs will be addressed and hopefully lessened, eventually.

35 comments:

Chennaul said...

I am pro-Assad.


***********

I read things backwards--it is a weird habit.

That sentence is leaping out at me--of course I have to chase after the links and what not now...

I have been "anti-Assad" since the days of the father.

Remember that?

Remember all the lies about how Junior would be better because he was educated--a "doctor", because the French thought the wife was fashionable, and because she was going to influence Junior with her international finance and/or banking degrees?

"Pro-Assad"--now I have to go look and check my reflexes about that--I'm not sure a side should be picked yet.

Methadras said...

In this regard, the usage of the term lesser of two evils is apt. The problem is, is that Obama has thrown in his lot with the opposition, which is really AQ. Now, Syria will never shed it's terror state status regardless of who win, but I'd rather have Assad win in this case and have him cause a great purge like all good leftists partake in whenever they crush their opposition that dares rise up against them.

Chennaul said...

Methadras-

It's weird how just one guy can hang on--went one of deborah's links and read this:


The move is a sign of the growing confidence of the regime, which has established a so-called "ministry of reconciliation" with the task of easing the way for former opponents to return to the government side.


The Ministry of Reconciliation.

(man does that give me the creeps.)

ndspinelli said...

Syria is like most of the former colonial properties given "independence" by European countries decades ago. You place into power a minority sect. That was done in Iraq, Iran, Syria and other countries. That means the leaders of that former colony need you for support and protection. And, the obvious consequences of this was that the minority dictators of these new "countries" had to be increasingly more ruthless to keep the majority sect[s] under their control. So, the scenario was the more ruthless the minority leader, the less likely of a revolt. However, when the MOST depraved of all these leaders, Saddam Hussein, was hung, well then the torch was lit.

The choices are horrible or more horrible. The clock started ticking when these minority dictators were installed by their former colonial power. Time has run out. It's going to get nastier and there ain't a fucking thing we can do. Oh, we can put a bandaid on a few cuts, but there is a mortal head wound that even the most skilled surgeon could not save the patient.

chickelit said...

I though Allah was sorting this out?

edutcher said...

No, let's leave this one alone.

Choom and Hillary!'s leadership in Labia was so swell even the Atlantic wants it investigated.

Finally.

Looks like 35 people were involved at the Benghazi Embassy, 7 badly wounded.

For example, this guy.

Maybe that theory about Choom being high as a kite that night is true and somebody like Panetta (sure wouldn't have been Hillary!) had to be the adult and get them out of there.

No, stay out of Syria, there are only bad guys there; we still have to finish figuring out what happened in Labia.

Chennaul said...

The choices are horrible or more horrible. The clock started ticking when these minority dictators were installed by their former colonial power.

*******

Damn it--that's exactly my problem with it--but I was unable to say it.

Assad is a minority dictator, it is not the natural order of things and that will always come with a whole host of problems.

Permanent lack of legitimacy being one of the primary ones, in my opinion.

Methadras said...

madawaskan said...

Methadras-

It's weird how just one guy can hang on--went one of deborah's links and read this:


The move is a sign of the growing confidence of the regime, which has established a so-called "ministry of reconciliation" with the task of easing the way for former opponents to return to the government side.


The Ministry of Reconciliation.

(man does that give me the creeps.)


Yeah, I think we all know what a Ministry of Reconciliation is going to do. Orwell would be proud.

Chennaul said...


Yeah, I think we all know what a Ministry of Reconciliation is going to do. Orwell would be proud.


**********

Holy crap--that's just what I was thinking--it is Orwellian.

Ghee I wonder if Robespierre had a--

"Ministry of Reconciliation"?

Something like--

"Heads We Win, Heads YOU Lose."

Eric the Fruit Bat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Eric the Fruit Bat said...

Iran is famous for its pistachios and its Persian cats.

Turkey for its bathrobes and taffy, as well as for the tasty bird that bears its name.

Lebanon gave us its much-prized bologna.

But what has Syria done for us, lately?

I say to hell with it!

Eric the Fruit Bat said...

And let's not forget those delectable Jordan almonds!

Chennaul said...

Janet Jackson--

Hit it!


What Have You Done for Me, Lately?

ricpic said...

Of one thing I can assure you, no matter who wins no ones poverty will be addressed.

virgil xenophon said...

@ndspinelli/

Agree in general but putting a strong minority sect in power, besides the reasons you outlined, was actually the MOST humane thing to be done as the minority was not about to wipe out the majority; however with majority sects in power genocidal war on all the numerical significant minorities follows automatically (unless, as in southern India, the dominate tribe/religion is SO predominate that they do not fear the other rivals, i.e., Jews and Moselms who are often voted in as Mayors of overwhelmingly Hindu cities)

As to "lesser of two evils" Henry Kissinger once said (para): "Most people think choices in Foreign Policy are between good and evil. They are wrong. Usually the choices are limited to a choice between the totally nasty and gruesomely loathsome and the absolutely unendurable and totally unbearable."

edutcher said...

ricpic said...

Of one thing I can assure you, no matter who wins no ones poverty will be addressed.

It will be addressed, it just won't be ameliorated.

ndspinelli said...

virgil, I think we agree it's been a cluster fuck for generations and it is now all coming to a head.

Chennaul said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Chennaul said...

Does anyone know what the status is of Syria in relation to WMD?

Weren't they going on that and Iran was helping them?

IIRC

If you "stabilize" the government and Assad--don't you help them essentially get further down the road towards that?

Although I can see the other problem of letting radicals get a hold of what capabilities might already be there.

rcocean said...

I always think of "Syrup" when someone mentions Syria. Also,"cafeteria" and "Serious"

rcocean said...

Syria is also a good word for use in crossword puzzles. 3 vowels and 2 consonants. Y is the 2nd letter rather the usual first or last one.

Tricky.

edutcher said...

madawaskan said...

Does anyone know what the status is of Syria in relation to WMD?

Weren't they going on that and Iran was helping them?

IIRC


AFAIK, the weapons were the stuff Putin trucked out of Iraq in '03, along with some stuff the Dinner Jacket may have been helping them develop (remember the lab the Israelis bomb that went up a like a small Hiroshima?)

For more info (if this is what you mean), try

here,

here,

and here.

Chennaul said...

Thank you edutcher!

Chennaul said...

edutcher

Oops! The last link doesn' t work.

I seem to remember that awhile back the Israelis bombed a facility in Syria, and then the Iranians,-- not the Iraqis-- were shipping certain suspicious supplies to Syria.

Ga! My memory is not that great I need to go look that up and/or verify it.

I really could have that all wrong.

Chennaul said...

Okay here is the first part of that.

A Syrian weapons facility was struck early Friday by Israeli warplanes, a U.S. official told Fox News.
A source told Fox News that it is not clear whether the warplanes crossed into Syrian airspace or whether the missiles were fired from across the border.
The strike was confirmed by Israeli officials who said the country's air force targeted a shipment of "game changing" weapons bound for the Lebanese militant Hezbollah group.



fox news

AllenS said...

ndspinelli said...
virgil, I think we agree it's been a cluster fuck for generations and it is now all coming to a head.

Ding ding ding, I think we have a winner.

Chennaul said...

Okay actually all I can find from a reliable source is the Pentagon denying that the Iranians were doing that.

The Pentagon is disputing reports that Iranian ships docked at a Syrian port over the weekend.
Iranian state-run Press TV said Saturday that an Iranian navy destroyer and a supply ship had docked in the port of Tartus to provide training to ally Syria's naval forces, as Syria tries to crush the opposition movement.
But Defense Department press secretary George Little said Tuesday the U.S. military saw no indication that the ships docked or delivered any cargo. Little said Tehran's ships went through the Suez Canal and now appear to be going back through the canal again.



fox news

edutcher said...

mad, the last one wasn't really relevant, as I look at it again, but try it now (some of these old links go bad).

In any case, you're right about that lab and thanks for a link.

Chennaul said...

Actually edutcher

I should have also clipped this part from that first article I linked--it was a little scarier than a lab.

In 2007, Israeli jets bombed a suspected nuclear reactor site along the Euphrates River in northeastern Syria, an attack that embarrassed and jolted the Assad regime and led to a buildup of the Syrian air defense system. Russia provided the hardware for the defense systems upgrade and continues to be a reliable supplier of military equipment to the Assad regime.

So I was remembering that--I think.

There are also rumors or more about them doing some underground crapola.


*********

Okay off to go check out the link, thanks.

Chennaul said...

Hey-- I do remember that story edutcher but I didn't know the Canadians ended up with it.

Score!

From your link:


The Iraqi government sold the yellowcake to a Canadian uranium producer, Cameco Corp., in a transaction the official described as worth "tens of millions of dollars." A Cameco spokesman, Lyle Krahn, declined to discuss the price, but said the yellowcake will be processed at facilities in Ontario for use in energy-producing reactors.
"We are pleased ... that we have taken (the yellowcake) from a volatile region into a stable area to produce clean electricity," he said.

edutcher said...

mad, that was what fascinated me from the beginning when I heard it.

deborah said...

madawaskan:
"In 2007, Israeli jets bombed a suspected nuclear reactor site along the Euphrates River in northeastern Syria, an attack that embarrassed and jolted the Assad regime and led to a buildup of the Syrian air defense system. Russia provided the hardware for the defense systems upgrade and continues to be a reliable supplier of military equipment to the Assad regime."

Interesting how things work out.

deborah said...

"ricpic said...

Of one thing I can assure you, no matter who wins no ones poverty will be addressed.

Ed: It will be addressed, it just won't be ameliorated.

deborah: yeah, probably.

deborah said...

Meth:
"In this regard, the usage of the term lesser of two evils is apt. The problem is, is that Obama has thrown in his lot with the opposition, which is really AQ. Now, Syria will never shed it's terror state status regardless of who win, but I'd rather have Assad win in this case and have him cause a great purge like all good leftists partake in whenever they crush their opposition that dares rise up against them."

As madawaskan mentioned the other day, the Qataris would like to run a pipeline through Syria, hence one possible cause of the uprising. Syria/Iran/Iraq have one planned together.

deborah said...

Chick, God's busy; that's why he handed the football off to Obama.